L.A
SOSNOVSKIY
RISK
Mechanothermodynamics
of Irreversible Damages
Reviewers:
Professor L.G Krasnevsky, Doctor of technical sciences, Corresponding Member
of the National Academy of Sciences
of Belarus (Institute of
Machines Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus);
Professor
V.Y Negrey, Doctor of
technical sciences (Belarusian
State University of Transport)
CONTENTS
PREFACE
.5
1
SOME METHODS OF RISK, SAFETY, DAMAGE ASSESMENT
.9
Detailed review of the known
methods of risk and safety assessment is beyond the scope of this small
work. We will briefly analyze only some concepts developed for technical
objects.
1.1
Bolotin approach
..11
1.2
Farmer curve
....13
1.3
Zhurkov-Kuksenko-Petrov criterion
..
..17
2
ANALYSIS OF OBJECTS STATE
.21
Technical objects depending
on the real complex of loading conditions may be in different mechanical
states, for instance in damaged state, in critical (limiting) state, etc.
It is clear that both risk and safety of their service are conditioned by
the level of damaging. Some developed in tribo-fatigue methods
of active systems degradation assessment based on complex
interaction of damaging phenomena are briefly presented below.
2.1
General analysis
.
..
23
2.2
Damageability
.
..
..31
2.3
Translimiting
states
.
.
...............................54
3
RISK AND SAFETY CONCEPT
....65
We formulate the notion both of risk
and safety without any connection with the subjective assessment of
material losses it is defined simply by relation between favorable and
unfavorable events, situations, phenomena. The method and some results of
quantitative analysis of the relation of such a kind form the basis for
the developed concept of risk
and.
3.1
Notion of risk
.
67
3.2
Operative
characteristic of risk
....
..71
3.3
Risk and safety
...
.....75
3.4
Force-major
conditions
.
..89
3.5
Risk
management
.
...91
4
RISK
ANALYSIS EXAMPLES
.
.95
The simplest examples of quantitative
analysis of risk in technology, nature, society given below is more likely
of methodological than
practical significance: it is important to show wide applicability and to
understand usefulness of the developed concept of risk
and safety.
4.1
Materials quality
97
4.2
Toothed
gearings workability
.
..
....103
4.3
Motion
safety
..
..109
4.4
Illness
....111
4.5
Good
and evil
117
4.6
Bad
summer
..127
5
DESIGN ACCORDING TO SAFETY CRITERION
.129
Principles of design of the most important systems
active systems of machines and equipment introduced in tribo-fatigue are
discussed below. If durability condition is recorded according to risk and/or
safety parameters, then the defining dimensions of the elements of the
system are estimated according to these criteria.
5.1
Acceptable
risk
.
...
.131
5.2
Logarithmic
safety
..
.137
5.3
Material
loss
....144
6
L-RISK
AND GOLDEN PROPORTION
147
The developed concept
of risk and safety turns
out to contain golden proportion,
therefore it is related to fundamental results. Here we will reflect about
life, death and destruction of the system and about golden vurf.
6.1
General
notions. Golden risk
..
..149
6.2
Golden
sections of operative L-risk characteristic
.
.
.
154
6.3
Golden
sections of operative Sp-safety characteristic
.
.
173
6.4
Life as a
special way of damage accumulation
177
7
A-EVOLUTION
.
201
The author added one more theory of evolution to many
known ones: risk and safety relation is the main governing parameter (or
vector) of any system development. It turns out that motion produces
change in location, information, damaging, entropy and risk of the system
existence and therefore the system experiences multiple different states,
first subcritical, then translimiting.
7.1
Two types
of evolution
.
..
..203
7.2
Evolution
stages
.
...
212
7.3
Motion,
information, damaging
222
7.4
Entropy
and damaging
..239
7.5
Entropy
and probability
247
8
WHAT
IS INTELLECT NEEDED FOR?.....
..
........251
If the basic results of our investigation and research
are summarized briefly and then are generalized, it appears that in the
end the fundamental question appears: what is Intellect needed for?
The authors answer to this question is just another
conjecture. Intellect is needed to maintain necessary balance between
safety and risk for each system: be it small or big, living or not living,
it seems reasonable to say that its existence in time is
governed by golden dependencies.
8.1
L-risk
definition
253
8.2
L-risk
assessment
..254
8.3
L-risk
nature
..
....255
8.4
L-risk
and motion
..
...256
8.5
What
Intellect is needed for?..
.
.257
8.6
Information
quality
..
.260
SUPPLEMENTARY SECTION: Investigation of damages
..
269
Methods of experimental damage investigation and
L-risk assessment using the following models are presented: regular mesh (nervous
system model), irregular mesh (model of a human being), complex of special
meshes (chess model) and physical model tribo-fatigue toy which allows
to multiple different phenomena to be imitated.
S.S.
1 Nervous system
.
...271
1.1
Model
.
...271
1.2
Effect and damage
.
...277
1.3
Damage configurations
.
285
S.S.
2 Game rules and capabilities of a model
...287
S.S.
3 Human being as a system
.292
S.S.
4 Chess game
..294
S.S.
5 L-risk analysis
.297
S.S.
6 Tribo-fatigue toy
.
.297
MAIN DESIGNATIONS
..
.301
BIBLIOGRAPHY
.
.306
SUBJECT
INDEX
..310
About
the author
Professor
Leonid A. Sosnovskiy is the author of more than 300 scientific papers, 12
books, 3 fundamental reference books, 4 textbooks. He developed
theoretical and experimental fundamentals of tribo-fatigue.
Doctor
of technical sciences,
Honored
Scientist of the Republic
of
Belarus,
Laureate of State Prize of Ukraine,
Chief
of the tribo-fatigue laboratory of the Institute of Mechanics
and Machines
Reliability
of
the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus,
General
Director of S&P Group TRIBOFATIGUE Ltd.,
Professor
of Belarusian State University of Transport,
Honorary
Citizen of the Town of Chechersk.
Professor
Leonid A. Sosnovskiy graduated
from Leningrad Mining Institute named after Plekhanov, did his post
graduate studies in CNIITMASH (Moskow).
He
worked at Alexandrovsk Machine Building Plant (the Urals), Perm
Polytechnic Institute, All Union Research Institute
of Compressor Machine
Building (Ukraine).
Since
1980 he has been working in Belarus.
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